The Swedish and German economies are in good shape but England is a disaster waiting to be disclosed. Its currency is held aloft by spin and dodgy dossiers cobbled together by its money laundering and killingry businesses that so pollute the wells of global commerce...and in the 21st century the polluter is going to have to pay. France is in no better state.
Meanwhile the debts of America's funny money diseased economy are in the grubby hands of the governing classes in China and Japan...with the spivs of Washington and Wall Street in cahoots with the Fundamentalists of Texas and Tel Aviv to keep the world that way...see Bill Bonner's Empire of Debt for further details.
In 2008 I'll be keeping clear of the American dollar because of the strange rumblings about replacing it...and the Canadian dollar and the Mexican Peso...with the Amero. Instead I'll be betting on the collapse of the pound and the strength of German industry. For several years the gun-running, money-laundering and bullshit economy of the Brits has been going from strength to strength sending the Britpound soaring to a ten-year high with markets pricing it at more than twice the dollar. Value of course is something else again. And the euro has been keeping pace with the madness of the overpriced pound...to such an extent that by the end of 2007 the Britpound was at its lowest ever against the euro.
And so to 2008 where it may be that once I am familiar with the intricacies of the technical side of online spread-betting my friends will be given the chance to hazard their own family's money by sharing in my Swedish and German speculations. If I go this route then we will do it the old way...by commenda...about which there will be further details in some forthcoming posting. Here are my Swedish and German betting strategies.
Sweden: The exchange rate between the Swedish kronor and the English pound has bobbed up and down between 6 and 16 over the past 30 years...that's one hell of a range...both currencies are outside the euro...at the end of 2006 I got 14 for my pound and by the end of 2007 I still got 13. But it won't last. On purchasing parity it should be below 10...and the bullshit is varnishing fast. So the prediction is 8-9.
Germany: The euro has helped Germany assimilate her eastern provinces following the fall of the Berlin Wall...enlargement has moved the goal posts...the euro is much too broad a church to hazard money on...it could go anywhere as it muscles in on America's fading oil dollar hegemony.
So the strategy is to keep clear of the German currency and back the German economy...by building a list of the top European multinationals and ranking them in terms of their exposure to the German, British, American economies etc. Spread bets will then be placed on a portfolio of half a dozen companies...half a dozen is enough...there is a law of diminishing returns on portfolio risk spreading after this.
During the first quarter I'll be getting the hang of charting and stop-loss strategies and honing my timing skills...come the second quarter I'll start gambling heavily on my own account...by the third quarter I'll be ready to take a leaf out of the Fitzdares book...more on Jimmy Goldsmith's millions in future web logs...by inviting my friends to bet with me...and then (before setting off for four months in Arizona on Guy Fawkes Day 2008) I'll unwind my positions and move my well-gotten gains into Devon woodlands and Gotland cottages...A Good Year's Pay for a Good Year's Work.
